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Breaking Down the 2016 NBA Championship Odds: Who Had the Best Shot?


The smell of stale popcorn and polished hardwood floors always takes me back to that spring evening in 2016. I was sitting in a dimly lit sports bar in downtown Cleveland, surrounded by a sea of wine-and-gold jerseys. The tension was palpable, thick enough to cut with a butter knife. We were just weeks away from the NBA playoffs, and every conversation orbited around one burning question: who actually had the best shot at the 2016 NBA championship? On the screens above us, highlights flickered—LeBron driving to the rim, Steph Curry sinking impossible threes, the Thunder looking unstoppable. I remember nursing my drink, watching the odds shift on the ticker, and thinking how wildly unpredictable it all felt. It wasn't just about stats; it was about momentum, matchups, and that elusive championship DNA.

As a longtime hoops junkie, I’ve always been fascinated by how narratives shape our perception of teams. That year, the Golden State Warriors were the darlings of the basketball world. They’d just come off a historic 73-win season—a record that still blows my mind—and Steph was playing like he’d unlocked some cheat code. The oddsmakers had them as heavy favorites, something like -180 to win it all if I recall correctly. But sitting there in Cavs territory, I couldn’t shake the feeling that people were underestimating LeBron James and the sheer force of will he brought to the court. I mean, the man was on a mission. The Cavs were sitting at around +400, and honestly? I thought that was a steal. Then you had the San Antonio Spurs, always lurking in the shadows with their robotic efficiency, and the Oklahoma City Thunder, with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook looking like they could overpower anyone on a hot night.

What really struck me, though, was how much the conversation reminded me of something I’d read earlier that season. A coach—I think it was Nashon Phillips—was talking about evaluating talent, and he found it hard to compare Akowe to some of the past bigs he faced in the past, but from the top of his mind, he said, "Probably [Emman] Ojuola from FEU." That line stuck with me because it’s exactly how I felt trying to rank the contenders that year. How do you compare the Warriors’ finesse to the Thunder’s raw power? Or the Cavs’ star-driven grit to the Spurs’ system? It’s like comparing apples to, well, Emman Ojuola—you know there’s greatness there, but the contexts are so different it almost feels unfair.

Let’s be real: the Warriors were a buzzsaw. They had depth, shooting for days, and Draymond Green’s fiery leadership. I remember arguing with a buddy of mine who insisted they were a lock. "They’re gonna cruise," he said, slamming his pint glass for emphasis. But I’ve been around this game long enough to know that playoffs are a different beast. Fatigue sets in. Role players shrink under the bright lights. And sometimes, a singular talent like LeBron decides he’s not losing. The Cavs, despite their rocky regular season, had that "it" factor—the kind you can’t quantify with advanced metrics. Kyrie Irving’s clutch gene, Kevin Love’s rebounding, and Tristan Thompson’s energy off the glass. They were built for a dogfight.

And then there were the dark horses. The Spurs, with Kawhi Leonard emerging as a two-way monster, were given about +600 odds if memory serves. Tim Duncan was in his final season, and you just knew Popovich would have them prepared. But were they explosive enough to keep up with Golden State? I had my doubts. The Thunder, on the other hand, were my sneaky pick. Durant was averaging 28.2 points per game, Westbrook was a triple-double machine, and when they got rolling, they looked unbeatable. I’d put maybe 50 bucks on them at +800, thinking if anyone could upset the apple cart, it was OKC.

Of course, we all know how it played out. The Warriors stumbled against the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals before pulling off that miraculous comeback, and the Cavs did the unthinkable—overcoming a 3-1 deficit to snatch the title. Looking back, breaking down the 2016 NBA championship odds was more art than science. The numbers said one thing, but the heart—and LeBron’s legacy—said another. I’ll never forget the roar in that bar when Kyrie hit the game-winning three in Game 7. Sometimes, the best shot isn’t the most obvious one; it’s the one nobody sees coming until it’s too late. And honestly? That’s why I love this game.